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Iranian economic crisis

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Inflation rate in Iran 2016–2026
Poverty- Share of population living on less than $8.30 a day, 2023–2024 [1]
Official exchange rate (IRR per US$, period average) - Iran, Islamic Rep [2]

As of January 2026, Iran is experiencing its deepest and longest economic crisis in modern history. With international sanctions, particularly those reimposed under current United States president Donald Trump, Iran's oil exports and access to the global market have been severely limited. Domestic mismanagement, rampant corruption, geopolitical instability, and structural inefficiencies have all led to acute social discontent. Due to the crisis, inflation skyrocketed to over 48.6% in October 2025 and 42.2% in December 2025, severely impacting household budgets.[3] As of March 2025, estimates ranged from 22% to 50% of Iranians living under the poverty line — a stark increase from 2022.[4] A systemic energy crisis has consistently plagued the country for years, with the issue reaching a climax alongside the rapid economic decline.[5]

The ministry of social welfare announced in 2024 that 57% of Iranians are having some level of malnourishment. Majlis reported that 50% of males 25–40 are unemployed and not looking for employment.[6][7]

The dual crises have resulted in severe food shortages and triggered nationwide protests in Iran in May 2025, along with labour strikes in the mass transportation sector.[8] Later in 2025, even greater protests erupted over the dire economic situation, and also included many anti-regime sentiments and chants.[9][10]

As of 10 December 2025, Time magazine, Euronews, and Al-Monitor reported that Iran was nearing economic collapse.[7][11] The rial has dropped to its lowest value ever, trading at 1,750,000 rials to one US dollar, with the Minister of Finance blaming the impact of its recent war with Israel.[12][13] Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered people to reduce consumption of food, water, energy and fuel.[14]

The budgetary commission has reported that the government's budget deficit was estimated to be around 1,800 trillion tomans.[15] Meat has reportedly become a luxury food item, whereas 7 million Iranians have gone hungry.[16][17]

Background

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Oil dependence and sanctions

[edit]
Main articles: Petroleum industry in Iran and International sanctions against Iran

Since the Iranian Revolution, Iran has been heavily dependent on oil revenues to supply the government's annual budget, making it very vulnerable to market prices and particularly international pressure. In the fiscal year of 2009, 60% of the government's budget came from its large oil and gas sector.[18] For decades, Iran has been subject to criticism based on its nuclear programme, sponsorship of terrorism, and human rights record, resulting in strict sanctions which restricted Iran's access to finance and technology and negatively affected its economy.[19][20] The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal marked a significant turning point in international relations and led to the lifting of many nuclear-related sanctions, which led to a rebound in the economy of Iran and renewed its access to global markets. When the United States unilaterally withdrew from the deal, the economy of Iran was once again in jeopardy. The move crippled Iran's oil exports and once again isolated it from the global financial system and is arguably the main cause of the country's current crisis.[21] To mitigate the crisis, the government stopped using the SWIFT system in lieu of alternative financial platforms and barter agreements with allies (especially China & Russia).

Economic mismanagement

[edit]
Main articles: Economy of Iran and Corruption in Iran

Iran is a mixed and centrally planned economy. Due to persistent corruption, the role of the government in the economy acts as more of a limiting factor to development, imposing burdensome regulations against public companies. Additionally, government-controlled corporations may easily crowd out the weak public sector and benefit from preferential access to resources and contracts, but often operate less efficiently compared to their public counterparts. This economic corruption hinders public trust and investor confidence alike, despite government attempts to downplay the issue. For instance, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has stated that although there "are cases of corruption; it is not systematic" in Iran.[22] In 2013, a Reuters special investigation found that Khamenei himself controls a massive financial empire built on property seizures worth $95 billion.[23]

Energy crisis

[edit]
Main articles: Iranian energy crisis and Energy in Iran

One of the foremost symptoms of mismanagement in Iran manifests through its power grid. Many of Iran's power plants, refineries, and energy distribution networks were built decades ago and have not received necessary investment or modernisation. Poor maintenance and ageing equipment lead to frequent breakdowns and inefficiencies.[24] Subsidies on energy prices have historically appeased the public, but have resulted in increased waste and made policymakers reluctant to increase prices to stabilise the sector.[25] Corruption is also a factor in the crisis; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard controls the energy sector, and a significant proportion of the oil is smuggled abroad and funds intended for the sector are siphoned by the guard.[26]

Despite the ongoing power shortages, Iran continues to export an increasing amount of gas and especially electricity, with a surge of nearly 92% in the first four months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.[27][28]

The hostile nature of the energy sector has led to an environment in which half of Iran's industry has halted due to rolling blackouts. This has resulted in an exodus of international corporations and investment, and implemented a harsh bottleneck on the production capability of the companies that have managed to remain.[29] Since February 2025, power goes out nationwide for 3 to 4 hours every day due to the crisis, and anti-government protests have erupted across the country.[30]

Iran's foreign military involvement

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Foreign military spending by Iran has been a source of domestic contention, as resources allocated to regional interventions compete with social welfare, infrastructure development, and economic stabilisation at home. Periods of economic hardship, marked by inflation, currency depreciation, and unemployment, have intensified public criticism of expenditures perceived as benefiting foreign allies rather than the domestic population. For instance, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has transferred more than $1 billion to Hezbollah in Lebanon during the first 10 months of 2025, according to recent U.S. Treasury Department disclosures. Hezbollah employs approximately 40,000 full-time personnel, according to Tom Barrack, the U.S. Special Envoy in Turkey. Each receives up to $2,200 monthly in salary. By comparison, Lebanon's official army has 60,000 soldiers who earn approximately $275 per month — just 12% of Hezbollah salaries, Barrack said.[31]

Twelve-Day War with Israel

[edit]
Main article: Iran–Israel war

Amidst the broader Middle Eastern crisis, historical tensions with Israel erupted into open warfare in 2025 after Israel struck Iranian civilians, military and nuclear sites before a declaration of war was made.[32][33] This jump-started a series of back and forth strikes between Israel and Iran and its allied forces in the region.[34][35]

Timeline

[edit]

On 27 December 2024, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) blocked bank accounts and payment terminals of all internet cryptocurrency to money exchange platforms.[36]

In January 2025 several corporations pulled out of Iran, for example Iran Hyper Star.[37] The Majlis launched a failed vote of impeachment against the minister of oil and the minister of economy.[38] The Iranian president reported 175,000 billion toman in losses within 9 months in the private sector due to poor economic conditions.[39] Authorities have warned of famines which could soon affect the country.[40]

Retirees, merchants and workers protested starting in 2016 in 20 out of 30 cities including Ardebil, Yazd, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Isfahan, Tehran, Ahvaz, and Shush, as well as in Kurdistan, West Azerbaijan, displaying banners with slogans such as "Healthcare and livelihood are our absolute rights" and "Our income is in rials; expenses are in dollars." They also criticised the government's priorities, chanting, "Warmongering is enough; our tables are empty" and "Our enemy is right here; they lie and say it's the U.S."[41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48] Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi blamed government incompetence for prices rising.[49]

According to government data more than 50,000 students migrated out of the country per year. There were 950,000 school dropouts in 2024. Around 3,000 female nurses were moving out of the country per year.[50][51][52][53]

Around January 2025, meat and seed cooking oil became largely unaffordable by most Iranians as the Iranian Rial was rocked by significant inflation.[54][55][56][57]

On 11 February 2025, a massive blackout affected Tehran as well as several major cities.[58] The Social Security Organisation in Iran raised medicine prices of 400 drugs by more than two times.[59]

The Iranian Minister of economy and finances was impeached on 1 March 2025, just a few days after the Vice President of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif stepped down after pressure from the public. The President of Iran has similarly been pressured to step down.[60][61]

On 19 March 2025, the exchange rate passed US$1 to 1,000,000 rial, making it the least valuable currency in the world.[62]

On 14 January 2026, The Iranian rial's value has plummeted dramatically, falling from approximately 42,000 to over 1.1 million against the US dollar, rendering purchasing power almost non-existent when buying goods from outside the country.[63]

Impact

[edit]

The sanctions have led to a significant decline in foreign investment, exacerbating the economic crisis. This was worsened further by increased American pressure against Iran.[64][65]

Since the beginning of the crisis, there have been significant worries by the leadership of Iran that the people may revolt. In November 2024, The Islamic Republic newspaper warned the Iranian regime of impending revolution by poor people.[66] On 6 April 2025, Masoud Nili, a senior economist and advisor to former president Hassan Rouhani, described the Iranian economy as fundamentally broken from decades of corruption, lack of productivity, and over-reliance on oil exports.[67]

2025-2026 protests

[edit]
Main article: 2025–2026 Iranian protests

In late 2025, mass protests erupted across Iran, driven by public anger over the deepening economic crisis. Initially led by bazaar merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran, the demonstrations quickly spread to universities and major cities such as Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad, becoming the largest unrest since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Security forces responded with measures such as tear gas. Over time, the movement expanded beyond economic demands to include calls for freedom and, in some cases, the overthrow of the regime. Protesters chanted anti-government slogans such as "Death to the Dictator".[9][10] The regime subsequently violently repressed the protests, leading to a death toll estimated at between 3,117 (per Iranian government)[68] to upwards of 36,500[69][70][71] making them some of the largest massacres in modern Iranian history.[72]

Following the protests, the massacres, and the 2026 Internet blackout in Iran, the uncertain situation has strained the economy further, with reports emerging that of mass closure of coffee shops within Iran and further deterioration of the economy.[73]

See also

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References

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