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2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis

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2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
Part of the 2026 Iran war
Satellite image of the Strait
DateFebruary 28, 2026 (2026-02-28) – present
LocationStrait of Hormuz
CauseUS–Israel strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation
ParticipantsIran, United States, Israel, shipping companies
OutcomeOngoing
Casualties
4 seafarers killed and three tankers damaged[1]

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime choke point for global energy trade, has experienced ongoing geopolitical and economic disruption since 28 February 2026, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, which included the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory and US military bases in Gulf states, while its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait, leading to an effective halt in shipping traffic.

The warnings and subsequent attacks on vessels caused a sharp decline in maritime transit, with tanker traffic dropping first by approximately 70% and over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risks,[2][3] and soon traffic went to about zero. This disruption affected about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), prompting major shipping firms to suspend operations in the area.[4][5] Oil and gas prices surged, with Brent crude rising up to US$89 per barrel at its peak, amid fears of prolonged supply shortages that could push prices toward $100 per barrel.[3][6][7]

Background

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The strait is 21 miles wide (34 km) at its narrowest point, forming a seaway passage between Iran and Oman. Its two unidirectional sea lanes facilitate the transit of around 20 million barrels of oil per day, representing roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade, primarily from producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Qatar.[8][2] In 2024, an estimated 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments through the strait were destined for Asian markets.[4] Europe gets 12% to 14% of its LNG from Qatar, through the strait.[9]

Tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel escalated in the lead-up to 2026, stemming from failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva and a prior 12-day air conflict in 2025.[10] Iran had signaled potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz in response to threats, including a temporary partial closure earlier in the month as a warning.[10]

During February 15 to 20, Iran increased its oil export to 3 times normal rate and reduced oil storage, to reduce risk of disruptions, and Saudi Arabia attempted similar moves.[11]

In the days before the strikes, war-risk ship insurance premiums for the strait increased from 0.125% to between 0.2% and 0.4% of the ship insurance value per transit. For very large oil tankers, this is an increase of a quarter of a million dollars.[12][13]

Escalation

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On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership, resulting in the death of Ali Khamenei.[7][13] Iran responded with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases in the Gulf, including in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, causing casualties and infrastructure damage.[14][15] The conflict expanded to Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, prompting Israeli counterstrikes.[16]

Closure of the strait

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List of ships attacked by Iran

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# Date Vessel attacked Result Sources
Name Flag Type
1 01-03-26 Skylight Palau Oil tanker Damaged [17][18]
2 01-03-26 MKD VYOM Marshall Islands Oil tanker Damaged [19]
3 01-03-26 Sea La Donna Liberia Oil/chemical tanker Unknown [20]
4 01-03-26 MT Hercules Star Gibraltar Oil tanker Minor damage [21]
5 01-03-26 Ocean Electra Liberia Tanker Minor damage [22]
6 01/02-03-26 LCT Ayeh United Arab Emirates Oil tanker Damaged [23][24]
7 02-03-26 Stena Imperative United States Products tanker Damaged [25]
8 02-03-26 Athe Nova Honduras Bitumen tanker Damaged [26]
9 02-03-26 Gold Oak Panama Bulk carrier Minor damage [27][28]
10 03-03-26 Pelagia Malta Bulk carrier Unharmed [29]
11 03-03-26 Libra Trader Marshall Islands Crude oil tanker Minor damage [27][28]
12 04-03-26 MSC Grace Liberia Container ship Unharmed [27]
13 04-03-26 Safeen Prestige Malta Container ship Damaged [30]
14 04-03-26 Sonangol Namibe Bahamas Oil tanker Damaged [31]

Timeline

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Within hours of the strikes, the IRGC transmitted warnings via VHF radio to vessels in the strait, stating that no ships would be permitted to pass.[4][3][32] Although the closure is not legally binding as Iran did not formally declare a blockade, military and industry sources say that safety cannot be guaranteed, and several ships stayed in port or turned back.[33] The threats led to a partial closure, with ship-tracking data first showing a 70% reduction in traffic.[2]

On March 1, the oil tanker Skylight was struck by a projectile north of Khasab, Oman, killing two Indian crew members and injuring three others. It was sanctioned by the US Department of Treasury for links to the Iranian shadow fleet. The MKD VYOM was struck by a drone boat, sparking a fire and an explosion in its engine room. An Indian sailor was killed. Another Indian was critically wounded on the LCT Ayeh.[17][18]

On March 2, 2026, a senior official in the IRGC officially confirmed that the strait was closed, subsequently threatening any ship that passed through it.[34] The US-flagged Stena Imperative was struck twice at the port of Bahrain, causing a fire.[25] A port worker was killed and two others were hurt in the attack, although the ship's crew were unharmed.[35] The Athe Nova, which has links to Iran, was struck by two drones after attempting to illegally cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency.[26]

Just after midnight March 2, no tankers in the strait broadcast automatic identification system signals, indicating low or no traffic,[36] however with unreliable data and satellite navigation device basis.[12][37] Protection and indemnity insurance was removed for March 5, making the economic risk too high for ship owners to use the strait. The strait was declared a high risk zone, yielding extra pay and right of refusal for crewmembers. The strait remained technically open, but effectively closed.[36]

On March 4, the IRGC claimed that they had achieved complete control of the strait.[38] By then, at least eight vessels had been damaged. A Malta-flagged ship, Safeen Prestige, was struck, forcing its crew to evacuate. Meanwhile, the Pola, which had earlier turned its AIS transponder off, managed to pass through the strait and deliver its cargo to the UAE, despite the blockade.[28] In the late night, a large explosion struck the oil tanker Sonangol Namibe, which was anchored near Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, Kuwait, causing an oil spill that posed an environmental risk. A small vessel was observed leaving the scene following the attack.[31][39] The IRGC said that it hit a US oil tanker.[40]

Impacts

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Late on February 28, outgoing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was heavy, while ingoing traffic was light.[41] At least three tankers were struck near the strait, including one off Oman that was set ablaze.[42][6] At least 17 oil tankers continued travelling through the strait.[43] On March 1 and 2, no ships appeared in the strait.[36]

Major container shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, suspended transits through the strait and related routes such as the Red Sea.[44][45] Houthi-controlled Yemen announced on February 28 that it would resume attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea,[46] forcing Suez Canal traffic to be rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This added weeks to transit times and increased shipping costs. The crisis disrupted global energy supplies and stranded tankers in the Persian Gulf.[47]

The crisis sent shockwaves through global energy markets and raised security concerns; Roughly 20 % of the world’s oil and natural gas normally passes through the strait, and the disruptions caused Brent crude prices to jump 10–13% in early trading, with analysts warning they could reach $100 per barrel or higher if disruptions persist.[48][6][49] The spike in prices is especially problematic in Asia, where major importers like China and India could face supply shortages and price volatility.[50] Natural gas prices in Europe also surged, rising from €30/MWh the past week, to €46/MWh on Monday March 2,[9] peaking above €60/MWh on Tuesday March 3 (nearly double from previous week),[51] before decreasing again to €48/MWh on Wednesday, March 4.[52]

OPEC+ pledged to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day to mitigate shortages.[6] The disruptions also raised concerns over inflation and potential economic downturns in oil-importing nations.[53]

Analysts from institutions like Barclays and Goldman Sachs highlighted risks of sustained high oil prices if the strait is restricted over a longer period.[13][7]

Cruise ships reduced activity in the Persian Gulf and stopped using the strait.[54] On March 3, Bloomberg reported that Iraq started shutting down operations at the Rumaila oil field due to lack of storage space, as tankers were unable to leave the strait.[55]

On March 4, Pakistan, a country reliant on imported oil that was looking for alternative shipment routes due to the closure, officially requested that Saudi Arabia reroute oil supplies through Yanbu's Red Sea port, with Saudi providing assurances and arranging at least one crude shipment to bypass the closed strait. Saudi authorities were also reportedly considering diverting some of their own crude exports via Yanbu to reduce the impact of the disruption.[56]

Due to rising tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Japanese refiners have asked the government to release some of their stockpiled oil. The refiners obtain about 95% of their crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. They seek access to this stock to help ensure smooth refinery operations and an adequate crude supply. About 70% of this Middle Eastern oil is delivered to Japan by ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.[57]

On March 6, Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi warned that if the war continues other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare Force Majeure (Qatar had already stopped gas production on March 2 and declared Force Majeure on gas contracts on March 4), and that "this will bring down economies of the world".[58] This announcement caused a jump in global oil prices.[59]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Crew member killed after projectile hits tanker off Oman, manager says". CNA. Archived from the original on March 1, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
  2. ^ a b c "After Iran Attacks, Ship Traffic Plummets in Strait of Hormuz". The New York Times. February 28, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
  3. ^ a b c "Oil prices rise as Iran war threatens shipping through strait of Hormuz". The Guardian. March 2, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
  4. ^ a b c "How US-Israel attacks on Iran threaten the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets". Al Jazeera. March 1, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
  5. ^ "Oil and gas majors and traders suspend shipments via Hormuz, sources say". Reuters. February 28, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
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  9. ^ a b "European gas prices surge by up to 45% as Qatar stops LNG production". euronews. March 2, 2026. Archived from the original on March 3, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
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  11. ^ Paraskova, Tsvetana (February 26, 2026). "Iran Rushes to Ship Oil Ahead of Possible U.S. Strike". OilPrice.com.
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  22. ^ G, Arthur (March 1, 2026). "Greek-owned tanker among four vessels attacked near Strait of Hormuz Greek City Times". Greek City Times. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
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  25. ^ a b "US flagged products tanker hit by unknown projectiles in Bahrain port, sources say". Reuters. March 2, 2026. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
  26. ^ a b "Iran Claims Strike on Iran-Linked Bitumen Tanker". The Maritime Executive. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
  27. ^ a b c "Oman Rescues Crew of UAE Containership Struck by Missile". The Maritime Executive. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
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  29. ^ "Tanker struck off Kuwait, spilling oil". Seatrade Maritime News. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
  30. ^ "Malta-flagged container ship hit by projectile in Hormuz, vessel abandoned, sources say". Reuters. March 4, 2026. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
  31. ^ a b "Explosion reported off tanker near Kuwait, crew safe, UKMTO says". Reuters. March 4, 2026. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
  32. ^ "Iran's revolutionary guards tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz 'not allowed', EU naval mission official says". Reuters. February 28, 2026. Retrieved February 28, 2026.
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  35. ^ Mongilio, Heather (March 2, 2026). "Shipyard Worker Dead, Fire Breaks Out on U.S.-Flagged Tanker After Iranian Attack on Bahrain Port". USNI News. Retrieved March 4, 2026.
  36. ^ a b c "Tanker Traffic in Hormuz Drops to Zero as P&I Clubs Pull War Risk Cover". The Maritime Executive. March 2, 2026. The Strait is technically open, but commercial tanker passage has effectively ceased
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  43. ^ "Oil Tankers Avoiding Vital Hormuz Strait After U.S. Bombs Iran | SupplyChainBrain". www.supplychainbrain.com. February 28, 2026.
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  46. ^ "Boycotts and arrests: Houthi rebels focus inward after halting attacks on Israel". Associated Press. The Times of Israel. February 28, 2026. Retrieved March 1, 2026.
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  48. ^ "Oil price expected to surge after Iran strikes and strait of Hormuz closure". The Guardian. March 1, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
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  51. ^ "Passage denied: Oil and gas prices swing wildly as Hormuz crisis drags on". euronews. March 3, 2026.
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  55. ^ El Wardany, Salma; Smith, Grant (March 3, 2026). "Iraq Starts Shutting Oil Output at Rumaila as Storage Fills Up". Bloomberg.
  56. ^ "Pakistan seeks Saudi oil supplies via Yanbu port after Hormuz disruption". Reuters. March 4, 2026. Retrieved March 5, 2026.
  57. ^ "Japan Oil Refiners Ask Government to Tap Strategic Reserves". Bloomberg. March 5, 2026. Retrieved March 6, 2026.
  58. ^ England, Andrew; Moore, Malcolm (March 6, 2026). "Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports 'within days'". Financial Times. Retrieved March 6, 2026.
  59. ^ "Oil price jumps after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop". BBC News. March 6, 2026. Retrieved March 6, 2026.
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