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2026 Kazakh constitutional referendum

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2026 Kazakh constitutional referendum
15 March 2026 (2026-03-15)
Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on 12 February 2026?
A Kazakh-language informational banner, March 2026, Shymkent

A constitutional referendum is scheduled to be held in Kazakhstan on 15 March 2026 to determine whether to approve a new Constitution of Kazakhstan.[1][2] The referendum follows President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's 2025 State of the Nation Address, in which he announced parliamentary reforms aimed at amending the 1995 Constitution.[3]

Although the referendum had initially been planned for 2027 to consider a package of amendments,[4] discussions within the working group expanded the scope of the proposed reforms — including restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights — prompting consideration of an entirely new Constitution.[5][6] A Constitutional Commission was subsequently established to draft the new text, and after a series of meetings and public consultations that gathered thousands of proposals from citizens and experts, it finalized the draft and submitted it to Tokayev on 11 February 2026.[7][8][9] On the same day, Tokayev signed a decree on holding of the republican referendum.[10]

If approved by a majority of voters, a new third Constitution will take effect on 1 July 2026.[11]

Background

[edit]
Main articles: 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan and 2022 Kazakh constitutional referendum

Following Kazakhstan's independence in 1991, the Constitution of Kazakhstan has undergone several revisions and replacements through referendums and legislative amendments. The 1995 constitutional referendum replaced the 1993 Constitution, establishing a strong semi-presidential system and a bicameral parliament consisting of the Mäjilis and the Senate. The bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan was controversial, as the unitary state had no precedent for two chambers, it failed to improve representation or legislative quality, and the rise of Amanat's ruling party dominance weakened the Senate,[12][13] which political scientist Sultanbek Sultangaliev described as the upper house as a "Chamber of Honorary Pensioners" duplicating the Mäjilis' functions,[14] prompting democratic opposition-led calls since the late 1990s and early 2000s to return to a unicameral system.[15]

In the years that followed, further amendments were introduced to the 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan, gradually adjusting the balance of power between the presidency, parliament, and other state institutions. In June 2022, a nationwide referendum supported by 77% of voters approved a major package of amendments to the 1995 Constitution.[16][17] The reforms reduced the powers of the presidency, strengthened Parliament, abolished the privileged constitutional status of the Elbasy (Leader of the Nation), and reinforced provisions on human rights and institutional accountability.[18][19][20] Officials presented the referendum as laying the foundations of a "New Kazakhstan" in the aftermath of the January Events.[21][22] A separate package of amendments was adopted by Parliament in September 2022, introducing a new restriction on the presidency: a single, non-renewable seven-year term.[23] The same measure also restored the capital's name from Nur-Sultan to Astana.[24]

Following President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's political reset that concluded with the 2023 legislative elections, some Kazakh and independent media speculated that the authorities might once again consider constitutional reforms, either to extend presidential powers or restructure state institutions.[25] In January 2024, President Tokayev dismissed these rumours in an interview with Egemen Qazaqstan, asserting that the seven-year presidential term "will never change again" and that no further changes to the Constitution were planned for the near future.[26][27]

On the eve of the 30th anniversary of the 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan, debate over the document's future arose as Kazakh online media reported an independently drafted third constitution by legal scholar Jumageldy Eliubaev, proposing changes to the structure of government, parliamentary powers, presidential terms, and state symbolism.[28] According to Orda.kz, Eliubaev's draft—published on the legal information platform "PARAGRAF" before later being shortly removed—allegedly attracted interest within the presidential administration amidst lingering uncertainty over the direction of Kazakhstan's constitutional future.[29] However, during the address, President Tokayev noted that while proposals for a new constitution had been discussed, reforms over the years, including changes after the 2022 referendum, had modernized the Basic Law and preserved its core principles, ruling out calls for a complete replacement.[30]

Nevertheless, on 8 September 2025, President Tokayev, at the State of the Nation Address, proposed holding a referendum on parliamentary reforms, noting that the proposals should be thoroughly discussed over the coming year, with a referendum possibly taking place in 2027.[31]

Electoral system

[edit]

In Kazakhstan, a constitutional referendum is defined as a republican referendum (Kazakh: республикалық референдум). Republican referendums are regulated by the Constitutional Law No. 2592 "On Republican Referendum" in the 1995 Constitution of Kazakhstan, which defines them as "a national vote on drafts of the Constitution, constitutional laws, laws, and decisions on other most important issues of public life in the Republic of Kazakhstan".[32]

In accordance with Article 10 of the Constitutional Law "On Republican Referendum", the exclusive right to call a republican referendum is reserved to the president of Kazakhstan.[33] At the same time, Parliament, the government, or at least 200,000 citizens representing all regions of the republic may submit a proposal to the president to hold a referendum.[34]

Under Article 17, the president may call a referendum on proposed constitutional amendments, introduce amendments and additions to the Constitution without conducting a referendum, or reject the proposed changes entirely. A presidential rejection may be overridden by a four-fifths majority vote of both houses of Parliament.[35] Article 18 provides that a decision to hold a referendum is established by presidential decree, which sets the date of the vote, the issue or issues submitted to referendum, and the legal consequences of its outcome. The text of the draft Constitution or amendments must subsequently be published in the mass media.[36]

Pursuant to Article 19, a referendum must be held no earlier than one month and no later than three months after the issuance of the decree, although the president may establish different terms in exceptional cases.[37]

Article 31 stipulates that decision on the issue submitted to referendum is considered as adopted only if at least 50% of registered voters participate, a simple majority vote "yes" and for constitutional changes, more than half of voters in at least two-thirds of the regions, cities of republican significance (including the capital of Astana) approve it.[38]

Preparations

[edit]

On 8 October 2025, President Tokayev signed a decree establishing a 33-member Working Group on Parliamentary Reform, led by State Counsellor Erlan Qarin.[39] The group includes parliamentary deputies from the Mäjilis and the Senate, members of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan, leaders of parliamentary party factions, as well as heads of scientific institutes, prominent scholars specializing in constitutional law and the theory of state and law, and experts and members of the National Kurultai.[40][41]

Between October 2025 and January 2026, the working group held a total of six meetings, during which seven political parties and 16 public organizations submitted proposals for constitutional reform, and discussions focused on the composition of the future parliament, its term of office, number of deputies, quotas, electoral procedures, interaction with other branches of power, the main directions of the legislative process, and the parliament's powers in ensuring the functioning of state bodies.[42]

During the 5th meeting of the National Kurultai, Tokayev assessed that the anticipated number of amendments would be much greater and described the process as a "step toward" adopting a new Constitution.[43]

Drafting

[edit]

On 21 January 2026, Tokayev signed a decree establishing the Constitutional Commission, composed of over 120 members, including National Kurultai representatives, prominent lawyers, media leaders, local assembly (mäslihat) chairpersons, regional public council members, and other professionals, and headed by Constitutional Court chairwoman Elvira Äzimova.[44][45]

On 31 January, after six meetings, the Constitutional Commission reported to Tokayev that planned amendments affecting about 84% of the 1995 Constitution had led it to conclude that a completely new Constitution should be drafted, proposed publishing the first full draft for public discussion.[46] Mäjilis deputy Snejanna Imasheva noted that this approach complies with Paragraph 9 of Article 26 of the Law "On Legal Acts", which requires adoption of a new edition if more than half of a legal act is amended.[47] The first draft of the new Constitution was published the same day.[48] For the first time, the draft constitution's preamble defines human rights and freedoms as the Kazakh state's top priority, including the right to life, personal inviolability, data protection, and a Miranda rule.[49]

Throughout early February, the Constitutional Commission continued to hold meetings to refine the draft constitution, incorporating public and expert feedback. Among the revisions were adjustments to the wording of the provision on the status of the Russian language in state institutions,[50] clarification of constitutional guarantees concerning free education and universal health care,[51] proposals to strengthen protections of private property and housing rights,[52][53][54] and discussions on institutional mechanisms such as the grounds and procedure for the dissolution of Parliament.[55]

Official submission and final draft

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On 11 February 2026, at its 12th meeting, the Constitutional Commission declared that the draft of the new Constitution was ready for a nationwide referendum.[56] That same day, the commission submitted its final draft of the new Constitution to President Tokayev, who praised the commission's work, highlighted the draft's role in modernizing institutional foundations and supporting sustainable development, noted the high level of public discussion and participation, announcing that he would sign a decree to hold a republican referendum on its adoption in "near future".[57][58]

The final draft, published on 12 February 2026, comprised a preamble and 95 articles across 11 sections, addressing the foundations of Kazakhstan's constitutional order, human rights, state institutions, and procedures for constitutional amendments. Among the notable provisions:[59]

  • Foundations of the constitutional order: The draft affirms Kazakhstan as a democratic, secular, unitary state, emphasizes the rule of law, and guarantees the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. It defines state symbols and establishes Kazakh as the state language, while Russian is recognized for official use.
  • Human rights and freedoms: Individual rights are prioritized throughout the document. The draft explicitly abolishes the death penalty, protects privacy and digital rights, guarantees family and personal freedoms, and affirms freedom of conscience and religion.
  • Structure of government: A unicameral parliament (Kurultai) with 145 deputies elected under a proportional system is established. The draft also introduces a vice president and a People's Council to serve as a national dialogue platform.
  • Judiciary and legal oversight: Judicial independence is reinforced, with provisions for the Constitutional Court and courts of general jurisdiction.
  • Local self-government: Municipalities and regions are granted autonomy, with clearly defined powers and responsibilities.
  • Electoral and referendum provisions: Citizens' rights to participate in governance through free elections and referendum are codified, alongside procedures for amending the Constitution.
  • Social and cultural rights: Gender equality, the protection of traditional family values, secular education, and the promotion of culture, science, and innovation are highlighted.
  • Environmental and sustainable development principles: The state's responsibility for natural resources and ecological protection is recognized, alongside commitments to sustainable development.

According to the Constitutional Commission, the final text incorporated editorial and substantive revisions based on approximately 10,000 proposals received during the public consultation process.[60]

Ballot question and referendum date

[edit]

Speculation about the date of the referendum has arisen, with political scientist Gaziz Abishev suggesting that, if the presidential decree on referendum date were issued during the 5th meeting of the National Kurultai, the vote could take place as early as 22 March 2026, coinciding with the Nowruz holiday and immediately following Eid al-Fitr.[61][62] However, on 20 January 2026, President Tokayev at the 5th meeting of the National Kurultai stated that the date for the republican referendum would be set after the Constitutional Commission analyzed and summarized all proposals and prepared a draft of the specific changes.[63]

On 11 February 2026, President Tokayev signed a decree setting the referendum on the draft of the new Constitution for 15 March 2026 and approving the official referendum question, which was to appear on ballots in the Kazakh and Russian languages as follows:[64][65]

Kazakh: Жобасы бұқаралық ақпарат құралдарында 2026 жылғы 12 ақпанда жарияланған Қазақстан Республикасының жаңа Конституциясын қабылдайсыз ба?
Russian: Принимаете ли Вы новую Конституцию Республики Казахстан, проект которой опубликован в средствах массовой информации 12 февраля 2026 года?
English translation: "Do you accept the new Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was published in the mass media on 12 February 2026?"

Calendar plan

[edit]

On 12 February 2026, following the issuance of the presidential decree on the referendum, the Central Referendum Commission adopted Resolution No. 6/10 "On approval of the calendar plan of main events for the preparation and conduct of the republican referendum scheduled for 15 March 2026",[66] which established the following timetable:[67][68]

  • 12 February – 14 March 2026: Campaigning period
  • 21 February 2026: Approval of commission compositions and precinct boundaries
  • 22 February 2026: Transmission of voter lists
  • 27 February – 4 March 2026: Informing citizens of voting locations and times
  • 12–14 March 2026: Delivery of ballots to precincts
  • 14 March 2026: Election silence
  • 15 March 2026: Main voting day (7:00 – 20:00 UTC+5)

Positions

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Choice Parties Political orientation Leader Ref
Parliamentary
checkY In support For the People's Constitution of a Fair and Progressive Kazakhstan! Reformism Erlan Qoşanov
Amanat Big tent Erlan Qoşanov [69]
Auyl Agrarianism Serik Egizbaev [70]
Respublica E-democracy Aidarbek Qojanazarov [71]
Aq Jol National liberalism Azat Peruaşev [72]
People's Party of Kazakhstan Democratic socialism Ermukhamet Ertisbaev [73]
Nationwide Social Democratic Party Social democracy Ashat Raqymjanov [74]
Non-parliamentary
Baytaq Green politics Azamathan Ämirtai [75]

Campaign

[edit]

Support

[edit]
Logo used by the National Coalition in campaign support of the referendum

Aidos Sarym, a deputy of the Mäjilis and member of the Constitutional Commission, stated that the commission was prepared to establish a republican headquarters and visit all regions of the country, emphasizing its experience, willingness to listen to citizens, and confidence that the reform was historically justified.[76]

On 12 February 2026, a National Coalition "For the People's Constitution of a Fair and Progressive Kazakhstan!" was established in Astana, uniting representatives of five political parties and more than 300 public organizations in support of the draft new Constitution. The coalition, headed by Mäjilis chairman Erlan Qoşanov (Amanat), stated that the proposed Basic Law would modernize the political system, strengthen social guarantees, and expand citizen participation in governance, and announced plans to conduct nationwide outreach and campaign activities ahead of the referendum.[77][78]

From 13 February 2026, regional headquarters of the coalition were opened across Kazakhstan.[79] On 15 February, the National Coalition organized a youth concert at Khan Shatyr in Astana, attended by more than 10,000 people in support of the constitutional referendum, featuring performances by famous Kazakh artists and speeches encouraging participation while emphasizing modernization, sovereignty, civic engagement, and institutional reform.[80][81]

On 21 February 2026, an expert forum "New Constitution: New Architecture of Trust and Development" was held in Astana, organized by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies and the Amanat Party Institute of Public Policy. Participants, including State Counsellor Erlan Qarin, deputies of the Mäjilis, and legal scholars, discussed the draft Constitution's provisions on political reform, institutional restructuring, public accountability, and human rights.[82][83] Qarin stated that the draft Constitution reflected evolving societal demands, including environmental protection, women's rights, traditional values, and a clearer affirmation of secularism, describing it as a "social contract" outlining Kazakhstan's long-term development priorities such as science, education, and innovation.[84][85][86]

The National Coalition also organised an online initiative encouraging social media users to add themed frames to profile pictures promoting the referendum via the Twibbonize platform, with organisers stating that more than 80,000 users participated.[87][88]

In the weeks preceding the referendum, several large public events were organized in support of the proposed Constitution and upcoming referendum. On 28 February, more than 12,000 people attended a concert and public dialogue event titled "Jastar Tandauy – Jana Ata Zan" at Maxi Mall in Oskemen, where officials, activists, and performers promoted civic participation and support for the reforms.[89][90] On 1 March, similar pro-referendum events were held in Almaty and Astana, gathering over 10,000 and approximately 5,000 participants respectively, featuring concerts, speeches by youth representatives, parliamentarians, and members of the National Coalition, as well as public messaging encouraging participation in the referendum and explaining the proposed constitutional changes.[91][92] In Almaty, the "ALGYS FEST" concert at Aport Mall East attracted over 5,000 attendees and included performances by popular artists alongside addresses by representatives of the city coalition in support of the draft Constitution. [93] A youth concert titled "Jas Stars" held in Almaty at the Baluan Sholak Sports Palace as part of Kazakhstan's "Year of Artificial Intelligence" gathered more than 5,000 participants and featured musical performances, robotic stage elements including a robo-DJ Temirbek, and speeches encouraging participation in the referendum.[94][95][96]

Media coverage and agitation

[edit]
An advertising pillar used for the 2026 referendum in Astana

On 14 February 2026, the Qazaqstan TV channel hosted a six-hour live online marathon "Referendum-2026" from 12:00 to 18:00 UTC+5.[97][98] The broadcast widely covered by republican television channels and major internet portals on YouTube and Facebook, during which around 100 experts, lawmakers, lawyers, and public figures discussed key provisions of the draft Constitution, including sovereignty, human rights, law and order, parliamentary reform, environmental and social policy, and other proposed changes.[99][100]

Kazakh language information referendum banner

In the weeks preceding the referendum, a public information campaign was visible in major cities. In Astana, countdown timers displaying the number of days remaining until the vote were installed on prominent landmarks, including the Ailand Ferris Wheel and the Kazakhstan Temir Joly headquarters.[101][102][103] In Almaty, the Kok-Tobe TV Tower displayed nighttime thematic lighting incorporating state symbols and the referendum date.[104][105]

Promotional materials were also placed in major transport hubs, including airports and railway stations,[106] while in shopping centres informational screens appeared in electronics stores.[107][108][109] Videos explaining the draft Constitution were broadcast in cinemas nationwide prior to film screenings.[110][111][112] In addition, themed materials were placed on public transport in cities and regional centres, including exterior decorations and posters and digital screens inside buses for which approximately 730 fleet were involved in the campaign.[113][114] Approximately 2,400 banners and LED screens installed in major cities and regional centres, featuring public figures, professionals, and families alongside pro-referendum slogans.[115][116]

In early March 2026, a social media video featuring an AI-generated snow leopard, Almaty's city symbol, circulated online urging residents to participate in the referendum, setting the first trend of using artificial intelligence as part of a modern digital outreach effort aimed at increasing voter turnout, particularly among young people.[117][118]

Criticism of campaign regulations

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Lawyers and public activists criticized provisions of the Constitutional Law "On the Republican Referendum" that allow civil servants and government officials to participate in referendum campaigning, arguing that such rules created unequal campaign conditions and enabled the use of administrative resources to favour the "Yes" vote and called for legislative revisions.[119] Justice Minister Erlan Särsembaev rejected these concerns at a briefing in the Mäjilis, stating that the Constitutional Law "On the Republican Referendum" does not contain serious contradictions and allows civil servants and government officials to participate in referendum campaigning under existing legislation, adding that any potential revisions to the law could be considered after the referendum vote is held.[119][120]

Observation

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On 12 February 2026, the Central Referendum Commission (ORK) announced the invitation of international observers from foreign states and organizations to monitor the referendum on the adoption of the new Constitution, with accreditation managed through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.[121] Deputy chairman of the ORK, Muqtar Erman, stated that invitations were sent to more than 30 countries across Europe, America, Asia, and the CIS region, and that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would also invite major international organizations.[122]

An independent Information Headquarters of Referendum Observers, comprising civil society representatives, experts, and human rights defenders, was formed on 3 March 2026 in Almaty to monitor the referendum transparently, collect real-time reports from polling stations via a situation room on voting day, and provide updates, expert analysis, and live commentary to the public through its website.[123][124]

OSCE

[edit]

On 4 February 2026, during a meeting with representatives of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), Kazakh authorities expressed their readiness to discuss the possible deployment of an election observation mission to monitor the referendum following consultations with election officials, with ODIHR director Maria Telalian indicated the organization's willingness to consider sending an observation mission following the findings of the assessment team.[125][126]

The ODIHR conducted a Needs Assessment Mission (NAM) led by deputy head Ulvi Akhundlu and election advisor Elena Kovaleva in a visit to Kazakhstan from 17 to 20 February 2026 to evaluate the pre-referendum environment and preparations.[127] On 19 February 2026, deputy chairman of the Central Referendum Commission (ORK) Muqtar Erman met with representatives of the OSCE/ODIHR mission in Astana, including Akhundlu and Kovaleva, to discuss needs for an observation mission. Erman briefed them on polling station preparations, voter registration, accessibility measures, and conditions for accredited organizations and media, while OSCE/ODIHR representatives discussed prospects for an observation mission.[128] On 3 March 2026, ORK chairman Nurlan Abdirov met with ODIHR RAM head Douglas Bruce Wake to discuss preparations for the vote, including accessibility measures, digital voter services, and the accreditation of observers from several states and international organizations.[129]

Controversies

[edit]

Restrictions on independent polling

[edit]

During the referendum campaign, several journalists, media outlets, and individuals were fined under Article 120 of the Code of Administrative Offenses for publishing or conducting referendum-related public opinion polls without complying with statutory notification and eligibility requirements.[130][131][132] On 11 February 2026, the Specialized Administrative Court of Uralsk fined "Journalistic Initiative" LLP, the founder of Uralsk Weekly, 30 MCI (₸129,750) for publishing a referendum-related public opinion poll on its Telegram channel.[133] Editor-in-chief Tamara Esliamova was summoned to the prosecutor's office after authorities classified a Telegram post asking readers whether they would participate in the referendum as an unlawful public opinion poll, a characterization she disputed, while prosecutors maintained that such polls required prior notification to the Central Election Commission (CEC).[134]

On 13 February 2026, the Administrative Court of Almaty fined Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty correspondent Maqpal Muqanqyzy for violating regulations governing public opinion polling during the referendum campaign after she posted a social media question asking whether respondents planned to participate in the referendum.[135] The court imposed a fine of 15 MIC (₸64,875), later reduced by 30 percent due to family circumstances. Muqanqyzy rejected the accusation, arguing that the post did not constitute a formal public opinion poll and did not influence the referendum process, and announced plans to appeal. Defense motions seeking clarification from election authorities on whether social media polls fall under electoral legislation were dismissed by the court.[136][137]

Following the ruling, media lawyer Olga Didenko called on the CEC to clarify whether social media user polls qualify as public opinion polling under the law, arguing that equating informal online voting tools with formal sociological surveys creates legal uncertainty due to the absence of recognized research methodology, sampling, and representativeness standards.[138] In a subsequent public response, the CEC stated that referendum-related polls may only be conducted by authorized legal entities that comply with statutory notification and methodological requirements and warned that violations may result in administrative liability.[139]

As of 19 February 2026, the Prosecutor General's Office reported that four violations related to referendum polling had been identified, including three unlawful public opinion surveys and one instance of publishing results without the required documentation; two of the surveys were conducted by private individuals and one by a legal entity that failed to notify the CEC in advance, resulting in administrative fines for two individuals and one legal entity.[140][141]

On 20 February 2026, the CEC refused permission for the Demoscope public opinion bureau, operated by the MediaNet International Center for Journalism, to conduct a survey on public perceptions of the constitutional reform, citing legal provisions prohibiting foreign funding of referendum-related activities.[142] In an issued response, MediaNet disputed the decision, arguing that public opinion research does not constitute referendum support activities and that the refusal limited independent monitoring and access to reliable information about public attitudes toward the reform.[143]

Promotive profile pictures

[edit]

The editorial office of Arnapress.kz reported that employees of the cultural sector in Semey received messages in private work chats offering links to create and post avatars on social media in support of the new draft Constitution, with instructions for selecting a frame from ten image options and recording participation. From there, screenshots and copies of these messages publicly circulated on social media. During a Radio7 broadcast on Arna News, Doctor of Law Maigul Matayeva stated that such actions could violate human rights.[144]

Officials, including Senator Olga Bulavkina and Vice Minister of Energy Suñğat Esimhanov in a conversation with BES.media, said that using the usage of these avatars was a personal decision, that no official instructions had been issued, and that they had not encountered or given any such requirements.[145] The messages reportedly encouraged employees of state and quasi-public sectors to update their profile pictures with thematic images supporting the referendum.[145][146]

Campaign pressure allegations

[edit]

In February 2026, several citizens reported receiving calls from police officers or local akimats after publishing social media posts opposing the draft Constitution, with some alleging they were asked to delete their posts.[147] At a 23 February briefing, Central Referendum Commission member Lyazzat Suindik stated that while citizens have the legal right to campaign both for and against the referendum under the law, the Commission does not have the authority to intervene in actions taken by law enforcement bodies.[148][149]

Legal experts and civil society representatives argued that the reported incidents raised concerns about freedom of expression, noting that although the Law "On the Republican Referendum" guarantees the right to publicly express opinions, other administrative provisions related to "false information" or public order may be applied in practice.[147]

On 25 February 2026, Deputy Interior Minister Sanjar Adilov denied reports that police or akimat officials were calling citizens who criticized the draft Constitution or demanding the removal of opposing social media posts, stating that he had no information confirming such allegations and emphasizing at a briefing in the Mäjilis that law enforcement bodies operate within the framework of maintaining public order and the principle of "law and order".[150][151]

On 26 February 2026, public figure Orazaly Erjanov was charged with obstructing the exercise of electoral rights in connection with social media posts about the referendum, which Kazakh authorities said contained false information and calls for a boycott; he had previously been detained and sentenced to 10 days of administrative arrest.[152][153] That same day, the Facebook and Instagram accounts of journalist Vadim Boreyko, founder of the YouTube channel GIPERBOREY, were allegedly hacked, with unauthorized posts containing false and defamatory content published on his behalf.[154][155] Boreyko stated that the incident occurred shortly after his channel released an interview with Legal Media Center head Diana Okremova discussing alleged intimidation ahead of the referendum and a report on the detention of Erjanov. Boreyko confirmed the hacking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, stating that he lost access to his accounts following the incident.[156]

On 27 February 2026, law enforcement officials visited the home of journalist Sabyr Maqajanov in Taldykorgan after he used a social media avatar expressing opposition to the draft Constitution, which authorities described as part of "explanatory work" related to the referendum; no charges or specific legal violations were cited, and a planned follow-up meeting at the prosecutor's office did not take place.[157]

Amidst the criticism against the new Constitution on social media, lawyer Gulmira Birjanova in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said that "control of public opinion is increasing" ahead of the referendum and warned that legal pressure on journalists and social media users could create a "cooling effect" on freedom of expression in Kazakhstan.[158]

[edit]

On 25 February 2026, civil activist Alnur Ilyashev submitted a lawsuit against President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with the Specialized Inter-District Administrative Court of Astana, challenging the legality of the Presidential Decree No. 1170 of 11 February 2026 in appointing the referendum. Ilyashev argued that the draft Constitution violated the Article 3 of Constitutional Law "On the Republican Referendum" and citizens' rights to independently nominate parliamentary candidates by establishing a new party-list system for forming the Kurultai and altering fundamental constitutional principles, and requested the decree be declared unconstitutional from its adoption.[159][160][161]

On 27 February 2026, the Astana Inter-District Administrative Court rejected activist Ilyashev's complaint against Tokayev, thereby upholding the presidential decree of holding the referendum.[162]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Fieldwork date Sample size Polling firm checkYYes ☒NNo Don't know Lead
12–20 Feb 2026 1,200 Kazakhstan Institute of Social Development 89.2 — 10.8 —
14–18 Feb 2026 1,200 Public Opinion 78.8 — 22.5 —
9–18 Feb 2026 8,000 Institute of Public Policy of the Amanat Party 86.5 — — —
12 Feb 2026 Final draft of the new Constitution published and submitted to the referendum
1–5 Feb 2026 1,200 Institute for Democracy 84.7 13.5 — 71.2
24–28 Jan 2026 1,200 Public Opinion 78.4 18.8 2.9 59.6
21 Jan 2026 Preliminary draft of the new Constitution released for public discussion

Conduct

[edit]
Official logo of the 2026 referendum

Elections in Kazakhstan are prepared and conducted by various bodies of election commissions.

Preparations

[edit]

On 12 February 2026, the ORK held a meeting to approve the calendar plan and organizational framework for the 15 March referendum. Preparations included training more than 71,000 territorial and precinct commission members, organizing accreditation of international observers and foreign media, distributing ballots and draft Constitution texts to polling stations, implementing accessibility measures for voters with disabilities, and establishing public information systems such as hotlines and media briefings to inform citizens about the referendum process.[121]

On 18 February 2026, the ORK held an online training seminar for 821 territorial referendum commission members covering organizational procedures, campaigning rules, public observation, and legal and financial aspects of administration, as part of broader preparations that included planned training for commission members.[163]

A total of 10,413 polling stations were initially established for the 2026 referendum, including 9,779 at citizens' places of permanent registration and 634 in temporary locations, as well as 82 polling stations in 64 foreign countries.[164][165] On 23 February 2026, the ORK revised the figures to 10,411 polling stations domestically and 80 abroad in 62 countries after excluding Ukraine and Ethiopia due to the international and geopolitical situation, including a significant decrease in the number of registered Kazakhstani citizens in those states.[166][167][168] Voting will take place from 07:00 to 20:00 at regular polling stations, while 632 special polling stations — including those in military units, hospitals, sanatoriums, detention centres, and foreign missions — may close earlier once all registered voters have cast their ballots.[169]

In total, 12,586,413 electoral ballots were prepared, including a one-percent reserve as required by law.[170][171]

The ministries of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, together with Internal Affairs, launched two eGov portal services for voters to verify and update registration at polling stations, while precinct commissions supported outreach through QR-coded invitations, Telegram bots, and SMS notifications, with 5,066 polling stations enabling on-site updates and 220 providing temporary registration.[172]

On 24 February 2026, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with ORK chairman Nurlan Äbdirov to receive a briefing on preparations for the referendum, emphasising the need to ensure openness, legality and equal conditions for all citizens during the vote.[173]

Lawyer Serik Abishev appealed to Äbdirov, proposing reforms to precinct election commission management, including horizontal rotation of members, short-term secondments, digital registries, QR codes on ballots, blockchain for result transmission, and AI monitoring to enhance transparency and prevent fraud. Abishev argued that long-standing system of "permanent commissions" had created stagnation, reduced public confidence, and risked informal ties or corruption.[174]

On 27 February 2026, the ORK conducted a separate online seminar for more than 500 representatives of accredited public associations, NGOs, and media, focusing on campaigning regulations, observer and media accreditation, voter list procedures, and other aspects of referendum administration.[175] During an online training seminar, ORK official Tusip Ryspekov stated that polling stations were not required to provide food or water for citizens observing the Ramadan fast, although stations were advised to ensure water availability where possible as the referendum coincided with Ramadan.[176]

On 3 March 2026, the ORK launched an online service "Find your polling station to vote on IIN" allowing voters to quickly find their polling station by entering their Individual Identification Number (IIN) on official portals.[177] Additionally, on 4 March, the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development announced that citizens could check their polling station online through the eGov Mobile app and the Gov.kz portal by entering their IIN and region, with the service displaying the polling station number and address, along with access to referendum-related information.[178][179]

On 3–4 March 2026, ORK chairman Äbdirov inspected polling stations in Almaty, the Almaty Region, and Qonayev, ensuring accessibility measures, updated voter lists, absentee voting, informational materials, and interdepartmental coordination to guarantee legally established conditions for the free expression of citizens' will.[180]

Voter registration

[edit]

By 1 July and 1 January every year, information on voters and the boundaries of polling stations are submitted by the local executive bodies (akimats) in electronic form to their territorial election commissions, which ensure the verification and submission of information to the higher election commissions.[181] At a briefing on 12 February 2026, member of the ORK Azamat Aimanakumov stated that 12,416,759 citizens were included in the voter list as of 1 January 2026.[182]

For the 2026 referendum, voter registration and related procedures followed the deadlines set by the Chapter 4 of the Constitutional Law "On the Republican Referendum" and the associated electoral regulations.[183] Akimats were responsible for compiling the voter lists at the place of residence, updating them to reflect recent migration or submitted applications, and submitting them to the precinct and territorial referendum commissions.[181] Voter lists had to be compiled and submitted by akim (local head) no later than 20 days before the vote (22 February 2026). From 15 days before the referendum (27 February 2026), citizens were able to review and verify their inclusion in the voter lists. Finally, precinct commissions were required to notify voters of the time and place of voting at least 10 days before the referendum (4 March 2026).[184]

As of 23 February 2026, a total of 12,461,796 citizens were included on the voter register according to reports and information of representatives of the akimats of the regions, Astana, Almaty and Shymkent.[185]

Referendum spending

[edit]

At a briefing on 12 February 2026, CEC member Mikhail Bortnik announced that the estimated cost of holding the 2026 referendum would amount to 20.8 billion tenge, with 75% allocated to salaries of polling station commission members, and noted that the funds would be drawn from the government reserve as they were not provided in the year 2026 republican budget.[186] Vice Minister of Finance Dauren Temirbekov added that the total cost was expected to exceed the 15.5 billion tenge spent on the 2024 referendum, citing population growth and inflation as contributing factors.[187][188][189]

On 19 February 2026, the Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan announced that 20.7 billion tenge had been allocated from the government reserve for the republican referendum, including 20.6 billion tenge to the CEC — of which 15.6 billion (75%) was for remuneration of 71,044 commission members and 4.9 billion (25%) for organizational measures such as printing ballots and information support — along with an additional 123.6 million tenge for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to service overseas polling stations, while reiterating that foreign or international financing of referendum-related activities is prohibited by law.[190][191] On 23 February, CEC member Mikhail Bortnik confirmed that the final approved budget amounted to approximately ₸20,778,515,000, confirming the previously announced allocations.[192]

Online voting

[edit]

At a meeting of the ORK on 12 February 2026, Vice Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Rostislav Konyashkin stated that electronic voting was unlikely for the upcoming referendum due to the need for legislative amendments and broader legal, technical, and organizational reforms, emphasizing concerns over vote secrecy and the integrity of the electoral process.[193] CEC chairman Nurlan Äbdirov added that paper ballots remain significantly cheaper than electronic voting and cited international examples, notably South Korea, where electronic voting is not used on the main election day despite technological availability.[194]

Accessibility for disabled voters

[edit]

On 19 February 2026, the CEC reported that polling stations for the republican referendum will include ramps, lifts, tactile signs, call buttons, and designated parking for voters with disabilities. Accessible corners will provide magnifiers, headphones, and special voting booths, with information materials available in audio and sign language formats.[195] Braille stencils and audio bulletins will be provided for visually impaired voters, and electronic magnifiers, induction loops, and Braille site maps are being piloted in Aktobe Region and Pavlodar Region.[196] Commission members also announced in conducting door-to-door visits to identify voters needing assistance.[195]

At a subsequent meeting on 22 February, CEC chairman Nurlan Äbdirov stated that Braille stencils were being prepared for nationwide distribution under strict scrutiny by the Central Audit Committee, alongside plans to provide audio versions of the draft Constitution at polling stations, complete accessibility training for referendum commission members, and pilot electronic magnifiers and other assistive technologies in selected regions.[197]

At the 23 February CEC meeting, members stated that implementation of accessibility measures was under monitoring, including cooperation with non-governmental organisations, while regional authorities reported that polling stations had been technically equipped, voter lists compiled, call centres and Telegram bots activated, and services such as Invataxi and sign language interpretation organised to facilitate participation.[172]

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